Welcome to Economics Uncovered!
Want to learn more about inflation?
About the real state of the US employment market?
About the broader economic data points that matter and what they mean?
About how manipulating the money supply impacts prices and the broader economy?
If so, you’re in the right place.
In order to gain full editorial independence, and deliver independent, institutional grade research, direct to the people, I left behind a career as a sell-side research analyst and started Economics Uncovered.
With an unwavering commitment to quality, whether it be data analysis, current events or economic theory & history, Economics Uncovered, has got you covered, with over 1,000 individuals now benefiting from the research that Economics Uncovered provides.
What to expect
Given my personal research focus and its current importance, a key focus of Economics Uncovered is dedicated to delivering a best-in-class analysis of all thing’s inflation.
This includes in-depth forecasts and reviews of the US CPI, and explanations of important inflation related economic theory.
In addition to inflation, Economics Uncovered also provides in-depth analysis of the US jobs market, the money supply and bank credit, and GDP.
On a monthly basis, you can expect to see the following reports released:
US CPI Preview (see below for a past example):
US CPI Review, which includes flash estimates for the next US CPI report (see below for a past example):
Monthly Economic Review (see below for a past example: note this is not released during the month in which the more comprehensive quarterly update is provided):
On a quarterly basis, you can expect to see:
An in-depth quarterly update (the last one was 37 pages long) covering the money supply and key banking system metrics, inflation (including an update to my medium-term US CPI forecast), the jobs market, and GDP.
See my latest example below:
In addition to these routine research reports, on an ad hoc basis, I write research on important economic theory and concepts, as well as current and historical events.
A notable example of a report covering historical economic events, was my 4,500+ word report on the Great Depression, which covered its timeline, causes and parallels to today:
An example of research covering current events includes a breakdown of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (see below), while an in-depth breakdown of the shelter component of the CPI (see below) is an example of a report explaining an important US CPI concept.
A track record on inflation that you can trust
While predicting the economic outlook is incredibly difficult, with a core focus on explaining and forecasting inflation, if you have only just come across my work, you’ll rightly be inquisitive as to my track record on inflation.
While working as a sell-side research analyst in August 2020, with inflation not even on the widest outskirts of most people’s radars, I publicly warned that in light of the enormous increase in the US money supply, that gold wasn’t going to be the only commodity to see higher prices, instead I warned that the expansion in the money supply would “flow on to all commodities, and eventually all prices within the economy”.
After first calling out that higher inflation was on the way in 2020, in September 2022, when most were extremely concerned about the outlook for inflation, I published my first report for Economics Uncovered, publicly writing that in the absence of another large spike in energy prices, annual US CPI inflation was likely to have peaked in June 2022:
In January 2023, with US CPI growth last recorded at 7.1% and concerns over the inflation outlook still widespread, I released a medium-term forecast that included my expectation that US CPI inflation would fall below 3.0% in June — it ultimately came in at 2.97%.
While a recent spike in oil prices is likely to see the headline CPI move well above 3% in the very near-term, I continue to expect the core CPI to moderate in 2H23. My latest medium-term CPI forecast, which also includes estimates for the headline and core CPI on a spot market rent adjusted basis, is available within this report.
How about what lies ahead for 2024? Will high inflation return?
To answer that question, one needs to follow the money.
Just as the enormous surge in the money supply led me to first warn that higher inflation was on the way in 2020, the stagnation in M2 growth in 2022 led to my September 2022 conclusion that annual CPI inflation had likely peaked in June 2022.
While many remain concerned about the potential for another “wave” of higher inflation, with the M2 money supply currently seeing its largest annual average decline since the Great Depression, as opposed to high inflation, the bigger medium-term risk that faces the US economy, is a deflationary bust.
As my past research shows, as opposed to being reactionary and subject to recency biases, years of study and research on inflation has allowed me to avoid the often heavily politicised nature of the inflation debate, and to instead focus on the data that’s actually important for determining the inflation outlook — of which the money supply is the most critical component.
As a result, a subscription to Economics Uncovered, is a subscription to market leading research and to remaining one-step ahead of the crowd.
Don’t just take my word for it …
Saying that my focus is on providing high quality, market leading, institutional grade research, with a strong track record on inflation is one thing — having it validated by others is another matter. Here’s some feedback that I have received as a result of sharing my research and insights on Twitter — I hope that you walk away with a similarly positive experience!
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